The fields of reports are divided on two types: objective and fictitious.
The objective field values are pure extractions from bank / book record.
The fictious field values are stated voluntary by company accountant and reflect company
management policy.
The objective fields can be compared between different companies. The fictitious ones and ratios they involved can not
be properly compared between different companies even between different reports of the same company.
The sorted list of report fields:
| Mr. Market | Balance Sheet | Income statement | Cash Flow | ||||
| OBJECTIVE | FICTITIOUS | OBJECTIVE | FICTITIOUS | OBJECTIVE | FICTITIOUS | OBJECTIVE | FICTITIOUS |
|
Market Capitalization Share Price Outstanding Shares Diluted Shares Short Ratio |
Current PE Next Year PE |
Cash And Cash Equivalents Net Receivables Accounts Payable Short/Current Long Term Debt Other Current Liabilities Total Current Liabilities Long Term Debt Other Liabilities Deferred Long Term Liability Charges Minority Interest Negative Goodwill |
Short Term Investments Inventory Other Current Assets Total Current Assets Long Term Investments Property Plant and Equipment Goodwill Intangible Assets Accumulated Amortization Other Assets Deferred Long Term Asset Charges Total Assets |
||||
The ultimate goal of this applet is to entertain and please amateur active investor with direct exploitation of market opportunities.
The lower middle class investor turns to a financial adviser, and pay him fees, for two reasons:
Finally, you are using the applet and its results at your own discretion.
We are trying to implement portfolio for an Active Defensive Investor as it described in
the Benjamin Graham book
We are amateurs and ready to devote no more than 2 hours per week for stock research.
We know that as Passive Defensive Investors, on forthcoming 40 years of stock investment we can achieve as about 6% per year by simply investing in 2 or 3 low cost ETF as VTI, VCLT, JNK. The purchase of these ETFs is commission free with some brokers even on small sums.
BUT!
As Active Defensive Investors we are hopeful achieve more, applying simple selection rules to Total Market Index.
The strategy is to find high quality, significantly undervalued issues,
i.e. traded below its intrinsic value. Or speculative growth stocks.
For simplicity, let’s say that security is traded today on its intrinsic
value if in one year its combine growth from capital appreciation and dividend will be 6%
(which is an average year growth of DJ index of last 100 years).
It is difficult to calculate the intrinsic value of security as to predict the future,
but it is comparatively simple to detect that security is
well below its intrinsic value with high probability, i.e. that considerable growth or reward may be anticipated
in the near future (up to 3 years). The combined earning of a statistically representative portfolio
of (assume 100)
diversified stocks would achieve satisfactory (averaged 20% per annum in 40 years run) result.
B. Graham suggests the following quantitative criteria for detecting such issues:
B. Graham suggests the following sell criteria (apply for a steady trend market).
The issue should be sold:
The process is self-regulatory. So that in times when bull markets hits all times high there should be only a few opportunities. A non-invested portions of the portfolio should be held in cash or US government treasury bonds (VGLT).
The active investor should be mentally and financially prepared for a change of a trend and market disaster. After the epic October 1929 crash it took 25 years for SP500 to hit the pre-crash high. But to B. Graham portfolio it took 3 years to return to pre-crash value from its low, and less than 5 years from the start of the crash. So these numbers should be taken for minimal ones for future [imminent] problems.
Attitude to news stream. If you read news about a company (bad or good ones) from public sources, you should understand that all the world already knows this news. So they are (according to the Efficient Market Theory) carefully priced out (high or low) already. And as an amateur investor, you can’t achieve more sound judgment of news than a market. You can learn the cause of the current price move. But no news reflects future development. One should rely solely on described above numeric financial criteria on your trade opts to escape herd behavior. This point is the most difficult one in the Graham theory.
The whole set of rules is very clear and simple to be applied at first sight.
But is very difficult and unnatural to follow it that make him say:
“I’m sure that nobody could ever follow these rules.”
Good Luck!
It's nice to be